UEFA Champions League and Europa League Football
Predictions & rankings
By László Csató1,5, Karel Devriesere2, Dries Goossens2, András Gyimesi3,5, Roel Lambers4, and Frits Spieksma4.
1 Corvinus University of Budapest,
Hungary
2 Ghent University, Belgium
3 University of Pecs, Hungary
4 TU Eindhoven, Netherlands
5 HUN-REN Institute for Computer Science
and Control
CL
Click
here for Europa League
How likely is your favorite team to
proceed?
After matchday 7
How did the
results of the seventh matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the seventh matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 6.
The next
figure shows to what extent the seventh matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the sixth matchday.
The next
figure shows how many points are needed to survive the league stage, for each
of the teams that are still in the running. The colors in the plot below show,
for each number of points the team can still obtain, its corresponding
probability of progressing.
Comments
• Two teams
(Liverpool and Barcelona) have a guaranteed place in the Top 8
and the Round of 16, while two other clubs (Arsenal and Inter Milan)
can achieve this with a probability above 98%; titleholder Real Madrid has
a marginal chance to reach the Top 8. Compared to after matchday 6, the biggest
winner is Atleti (from 36.29% to
80.07%) and the biggest loser is Bayern München (from 63.46% to 6.95%).
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the seventh matchday, the biggest winners are Paris,
Atleti, and Feyenoord, while the
biggest losers are B. Dortmund, Man City, and Bayern München in
terms of the probability of qualification for the Round of 16 (two of the
biggest winners have won against two of the biggest losers)
• Lille
has found its prospects of reaching the top eight improving, even after
suffering a defeat against Liverpool. This surprising outcome is due to
a stroke of luck: all of Lille's closest competitors — B. Dortmund,
Brest, Bayern München, Aston Villa, and Leverkusen — also suffered
defeats in their respective matches.
• At this
point, 9 teams are eliminated, and 18 teams made sure to survive the league
stage. The remaining 6 spots are contested by 9 teams: PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica,
Paris, Sporting CP, Stuttgart, Man City and GNK Dinamo, and Shakhtar.
Although theoretically possible, in none of our simulations Feyenoord and PSV were
eliminated, while Shakhtar has less than 0.1% chance
to survive the league stage.
• Feyenoord
(from 5.8% to 0%), PSV (from 19.34% to 0%), and Paris (from
36.6% to 14.51%) have managed to drastically reduce the threat of being
eliminated in the league phase. On the other hand, the chance of elimination
has increased by more than 15 percentage points for Benfica and Man
City
• While Benfica,
Paris, Sporting CP, and Man City are certain to survive the league stage if they
obtain 11 points (or more), and Stuttgart is almost sure (unless – amongst other
things - GNK Dinamo would defeat Milan with 7 goals difference or more), this
is not the case for Club Brugge and GNK Dinamo, who still risk elimination with
11 points. On the other hand, Paris, Benfica and Sporting CP still have more
than 50% chance to proceed with only 10 points.
• Brest,
Celtic, and Lille have shown a remarkable performance since the
probability of their elimination has decreased from more than 40% (before the
first matchday) to zero after matchday 7. On the other hand, Bologna is
already eliminated even though this was considered highly unlikely (6% chance)
before the first matchday.
A note
on collusion
Simulation
models, including our own, generally do not account for the specific results
teams need to qualify, nor the varying motivations of their opponents. This
oversight can lead to skewed projections, particularly in scenarios where
certain teams have little or nothing to gain from a match.
Take, for
instance, Benfica and Sporting CP. Both Portuguese teams require just a single
point to secure qualification, while a win will not improve their chances of
reaching the top eight. Their respective opponents, Juventus and Bologna, enter
the final round with no tangible stakes. While Juventus theoretically could
make the top eight with a win and a string of favorable results elsewhere, this
scenario is highly improbable. Under such conditions, it is arguably easier for
Benfica and Sporting CP to secure a draw in these matches than if they had
faced their opponents earlier in the tournament, when stakes might have been
higher. This situation suggests that Club Brugge’s chances of surviving the
league stage may be overestimated in conventional models.
The
situation becomes even murkier with the Stuttgart–Paris fixture. In this match,
Paris secures qualification with a draw. Stuttgart, on the other hand, also
qualifies with a draw unless a series of extremely unlikely events unfold:
unfavorable results in Benfica and Sporting CP’s matches, an unfavorable
outcome in Manchester City vs. Club Brugge, and GNK Dinamo beating Milan by at
least seven goals. Given these conditions, Stuttgart and Paris have a strong
incentive to settle for a draw, ensuring mutual progression to the next round
with minimal effort.
To better
understand this dynamic, we conducted a new round of simulations where the
Stuttgart–Paris match was fixed as a draw. The results reveal a significant
negative impact on the qualification chances of other teams, particularly
Sporting CP, Benfica, and most notably Club Brugge. This highlights how
final-round motivations can disrupt the competitive balance and lead to
scenarios where collaboration—or even perceived collusion—can play a decisive
role in determining outcomes.
As the
tournament unfolds, such dynamics remind us that not all results are created
equal, and the motivations of teams in the final rounds may be as important as
their skills on the field.
The impact
of collusion in the Stuttgart-Paris match is also obvious from the probability
that teams survive the league stage for a given number of points.
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 6
How did the
results of the sixth matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the sixth matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 5.
The next
figure shows to what extent the sixth matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the fifth matchday.
The next
figure shows how many points are needed (in general) to survive the league
stage (left) or reach top 8 (right). The percentages correspond with how often
in our simulations the corresponding number of points was enough.
When we
look at the number of points needed to survive the league stage, this in fact
differs per team (mostly due to the current and expected goal difference). The
colors in the plot below show, for each number of points the team can still
obtain, its corresponding probability of progressing. Note that Liverpool
and Barcelona are missing, as they are mathematically certain of
reaching top 24. Also Leipzig, S. Bratislava, and Young Boys
are missing: they have been eliminated. Chances for Bologna are extremely
slim, even if they will their remaining games.
Comments
• Two teams
(Liverpool and Barcelona) have a guaranteed place in the Top 24,
while the elimination of further 12 clubs—those with at least 11 points—is
almost impossible.
• Three
teams (Leipzig, Young Boys, S. Bratislava) are already
eliminated, while further 5 clubs have less than 1% chance to avoid this fate.
• The
strongest team, Liverpool will almost surely reach the Top 8 and the
Round of 16. For Shakhtar (currently 27th) and all team ranked lower, it
is now impossible to reach top 8.
•
Surprisingly, the winners in the previous three seasons, Man City and Real
Madrid, have a marginal chance to reach the Top 8 and they can play in the
Round of 16 with only about 70% probability.
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the sixth matchday, the biggest winners are Aston
Villa, Brest, and Club Brugge, while the biggest losers are Sporting
CP, PSV, and B. Dortmund in terms of the probability of
qualification for the Round of 16 (two of the biggest winners have won against
two of the biggest losers).
• Juventus
(from 6.74% to 0.02%), Real Madrid (from 24.81% to 0.84%), and Feyenoord
(from 15.89% to 5.8%) have managed to drastically reduce the threat of
being eliminated in the league phase.
• On the other
hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 14 percentage points
for GNK Dinamo and PSV.
• Regarding
the probability of finishing in the Top 8, the biggest winner is Leverkusen (from
43% to 70%) and the biggest loser is Atalanta (from 61% to 22%).
• From Pot
1, Leipzig cannot survive the league phase and Paris has less
than 64% chance for this, while the probability is over 90% for the other seven
teams.
• Three
teams drawn from Pots 3 and 4 (Aston Villa, Lille, Brest, Sporting
CP) have a chance of above 52% to reach the Round of 16, but there was no
such team before the start of the league phase.
• Two
French teams, Brest and Lille have shown a remarkable performance
by scoring 13 points in six matches, the probability of their elimination has
decreased from 52% and 41% (before the first matchday) to statistically zero.
• Seven out
of the eight weakest teams have a negligible likelihood to play in the Round of
16 (below 0.25%) or avoid elimination in the league phase (below 2%).
• Even if GNK
Dinamo, Shakhtar or Sparta
Praha obtain 10 points, their probability of qualifying is still less than
50%. All other teams have more than 50% chance to progress with 10 points. In
the case of Benfica, they even have 90% chance of surviving the league
stage with 10 points (i.e. if they lose their two remaining games).
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 5
How did the
results of the fifth matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the fifth matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 4.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the fifth matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the fourth matchday.
The next
figure shows how many points are needed for team to survive the league stage
(left) or reach top 8 (right). The percentages correspond with how often in our
simulations the corresponding number of points was enough.
When we
look at the number of points needed to survive the league stage, this in fact
differs per team (mostly due to the current and expected goal difference). The
colors in the plot below show, for each number of points the team can still
obtain, its corresponding probability of progressing. Liverpool is
missing, as they are mathematically certain of reaching top 24. For Leipzig,
S. Bratislava, Young Boys, and Bologna there is no number
of points that they can still obtain that gives then a guarantee to survive the
league stage.
Comments
• Liverpool
still has the highest chance to reach the Top 8, Top 24, as well as the
Round of 16; it will finish in the Top 8 with more than 98% probability, while
its elimination is now impossible.
• It is now
mathematically impossible for Bologna, Leipzig, S. Bratislava
and Young Boys to reach Top 8.
• Man
City has only slightly more than 15% probability of being in the Top 8
after a decrease of more than 35 percentage points due to its unexpected draw
against Feyenoord.
• This
“last minute” draw has been very beneficial for Feyenoord, its chance of
elimination has decreased by the highest amount in percentage points.
• Four
teams (Liverpool, Inter Milan, Barcelona, B. Dortmund)
have more than 69% chance to finish in the Top 8 and more than 90% chance to
qualify for the Round of 16.
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the fifth matchday, the biggest winners are Atleti, Benfica, and Lille (all of
them have won away), while the biggest losers are Stuttgart, Brest,
and Monaco in terms of the probability of qualification for the Round of
16.
• Atleti (from 6.74% to 0.16%), Benfica (from
24.81% to 2.04%), and Feyenoord (from 38.83% to 15.89%) have managed to
drastically reduce the threat of being eliminated in the league phase.
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 10 percentage
points for Girona and Sparta Praha, and by more than 15
percentage points for Dinamo Zagreb and Stuttgart.
• From Pot
1, Leipzig has less than 4% and Paris has less than 53% chance to
survive the league phase, while this probability is over 90% for the other
seven teams.
• Three
teams drawn from Pots 3 and 4 (Aston Villa, Lille, PSV, Sporting
CP) have a chance of above 52.5% to reach the Round of 16, but there was no
such team before the start of the league phase.
• Brest has
shown a remarkable performance by scoring 10 points in five matches, the
probability of its elimination has decreased from 52.29% (before the first
matchday) to 0.61%.
• Seven out
of the eight weakest teams have a negligible likelihood to play in the Round of
16 (below 1%) or avoid elimination in the league phase (below 10%).
• It is unlikely
that 8 points will suffice to survive the league stage. We find that 9 points
is enough in less than half of the cases, and that even 10 points offers no
guarantee.
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 4
How did the
results of the fourth matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the fourth matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 3.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the fourth matchday increased or decreased
the chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the third matchday.
Comments
• Liverpool
now has the highest chance to reach the Top 8, Top 24, as well as the Round
of 16; it will finish in the Top 8 with more than 90% probability, while its
elimination seems impossible
• The
strongest team, Man City has only slightly more than 50% probability of
being in the Top 8 after a decrease of almost 30 percentage points due to its
unexpected loss against Sporting CP
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the fourth matchday, the biggest winners are Milan,
Sporting CP, and Atalanta, while the biggest losers are Feyenoord,
Paris, and Real Madrid in terms of the probability of
qualification for the Round of 16
• Monaco
(from 6.27% to 0.36%), Atalanta (from 6.77% to 0.47%), and Celtic
(from 30.31% to 6.36%) have managed to drastically reduce the threat of
being eliminated in the league phase
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 25 percentage
points for Leipzig and Paris, and by more than 28 percentage
points for Feyenoord and Sparta Praha
• From Pot
1, Leipzig has less than 12% and Paris has less than 60% chance
to survive the league phase, while this probability is over 93% for the other
seven teams
• Four
teams drawn from Pots 3 and 4 (Aston Villa, Brest, Monaco,
Sporting CP) now have a chance of above 53% to reach the Round of 16;
there was no such team before the start of the league phase
• Brest has
shown a remarkable performance by scoring 10 points in four matches, the
probability of its elimination has decreased from 52.29% (before the first
matchday) to 0.47%
• Six out
of the eight weakest teams have a negligible likelihood to play in the Round of
16 (below 2%) or avoid elimination in the league phase (below 12%)
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 3
How did the
results of the third matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the third matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 2.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the third matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the second matchday.
Comments
• Man
City has the highest chance to reach the Top 8 and the Round of 16 but Liverpool
leads with respect to finishing in the Top 24
• While B.
Dortmund had the highest probability to finish in the Top 8 and Top 24
after the second matchday, now it has been overtaken by three and five clubs
according to these two measures, respectively
• Compared
to the forecast before the third matchday, the biggest winners are Lille,
Feyenoord, and Stuttgart, while the biggest losers are Benfica,
Atleti, and Juventus in terms of the
probability of qualification for the Round of 16 (interestingly, Lille
and Atleti were among the biggest winners
and losers, respectively, after the second matchday, too)
• Real
Madrid (from 3.62% to 0.92%), Barcelona (from 7.45% to 1.56%), and Feyenoord
(from 41.13% to 10.79%) have managed to drastically reduce the threat of being
eliminated in the league phase
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 15 percentage
points for Atalanta, Bologna, Leipzig and Sparta Praha
• From Pot
1, Leipzig has only about 32% chance to survive the league phase, while
this probability exceeds 80% for the other eight teams
• Among the
four French clubs, the strongest (and champion) Paris has far the
highest likelihood of being eliminated in the league phase
• Aston
Villa has shown a remarkable performance by winning three matches, the
probability of its elimination has decreased from 24.05% (before the first
matchday) to 0.28%
• Only one
out of the weakest 11 teams have won, hence, six teams have a negligible
likelihood to play in the Round of 16 (below 1%) or avoid elimination in the
league phase (below 10%)
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 2
How did the
results of the second matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the second matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 1.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the second matchday increased or decreased
the chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the first matchday.
Comments
• Borussia
Dortmund leads with respect to finishing in the Top 8 and Top 24, but still
Manchester City has the highest chance to reach the Round of 16.
• While Real
Madrid had the highest probability to finish in the Top 8 and Top 24 after
the first matchday, now it has been overtaken by ten clubs (!) according to
both measures due to the unexpected loss against Lille.
• Benfica
(from 21.16% to 5.52%) and Juventus (from 13.15% to 2.79%) have managed
to drastically reduce the threat of being eliminated in the league phase.
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 20 percentage
points for Girona and Leipzig.
• From Pot
1, Leipzig has only about 50% chance top
survive the league phase, while this probability exceeds 85% for the other
eight teams.
• Two teams
drawn from Pots 3 and 4 (Aston Villa, Sporting CP) have a chance
of above 60% to reach the Round of 16, contrary to the case before the start of
the league phase when there was no such team.
• Brest has
shown a remarkable performance by its two wins, the probability of its
elimination has decreased from 52.29% (before the first matchday) to 13.33%.
• Compared
to the forecast before the second matchday, the biggest winners are Benfica,
Juventus, and Lille, while the biggest losers are Leipzig,
Atleti, and Girona in terms of the
probability of qualification for the Round of 16 (interestingly, Leipzig and
Girona were among the biggest losers after the first matchday, too).
• None of
the weakest eight teams have achieved surprise victories, hence, seven teams
have a negligible likelihood to play in the Round of 16 (below 1.5%) or avoid
elimination in the league phase (below 15%).
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 1
How did the
results of the first matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the first matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to right
after the draw.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the first matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the draw.
• Manchester City no longer has the
highest chance to survive the league phase, nor make it to the top 8: Real
Madrid took over.
• B. Dortmund’s away win against Club
Brugge brought them to a predicted top 8 spot, at the expense of Barcelona,
who lost against Monaco.
• Leverkusen (from 7.35% to 1.51%) and Monaco
(from 30.27% to 10.53%) have managed to drastically reduce the threat of
elimination in the league phase
• On the other hand, the chance of elimination
has increased by about 20 percentage points for Club Brugge and Feyenoord
• Bologna has lost much due to its home
draw against Shakhtar, the probability of its elimination has increased
from 32.71% to 51.07%
• From Pot 1, Leipzig is the least
likely to survive the league phase, in only three out of four simulations
• Now there are four teams Pots 3 and 4 (Aston
Villa, Monaco, Sporting CP, Stuttgart) that have a
chance of above 50% to reach the Round of 16, contrary to the case before the
start of the league phase when there was only one
• None of the weakest teams have achieved
surprise victories, hence, five teams still have marginal likelihood to play in
the Round of 16 (below 5%) or avoid elimination in the league phase (below 15%)
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After the draw
What’s the
chance that your team qualifies for the next round? This depends on how lucky
or unlucky your team is in the draw. The figure below shows to what extent the
draw increased or decreased the chances of each team for qualifying for the
Round of 16.
Comments
- According to the average strength of
opponents, the three teams with the most beneficial schedules are Celtic,
Bayern München, and B. Dortmund, while the worst schedules have been
assigned to Paris, Liverpool, and Sparta Praha
- In terms of the probability of
qualification for the Round of 16, the effect of the schedule can exceed
10 percentage points (Paris, B. Dortmund, Stuttgart)
- The relative effects may be even higher,
Celtic is now more than 50% more likely to qualify compared to the
stronger Salzburg due to the draw
- In Pot 1, the play-offs effectively
mitigate the effect of the schedule, the advantage of the weaker Bayern
München (B. Dortmund) over Liverpool (Paris) exceeds 25 percentage points
for the probability of ranked in the Top 8, which decreases to 15 percentage
points for the probability of qualifying for the Round of 16
- Even the strongest team, Manchester City,
has less than 80% chance to be ranked 1–8 and directly qualify for the
Round of 16
- The titleholder Real Madrid has about 60%
probability to directly qualify for the Round of 16 and it is eliminated
before this stage in 1 out of 10 cases
- In Pot 1, the schedule favours Barcelona,
Bayern München and B. Dortmund, while Liverpool and Paris had bad luck
- Nonetheless, all the nine teams in Pot 1
can qualify for the Round of 16 with at least a probability of 60%
- Pot 2 contains the most heterogeneous
teams, five teams have more than 59% chance to reach the Round of 16 but
two teams have a probability below 20%
- In Pots 3 and 4, only one team, Stuttgart,
is (marginally) more likely to qualify for the Round of 16 than being
eliminated before this stage, and its favourable schedule of strongly
increases its chances
- Each of the five teams coming from the
Champions Path of the qualification has less than 20% probability to reach
the Round of 16
- Six teams have no reasonable chance (below
5%) to play in the Round of 16
More
information on the methodology
behind these results can be found here.
EL
Click
here for Champions League
How likely is your favorite team to
proceed?
After matchday 7
How did the
results of the seventh matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the seventh matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 6.
The next
figure shows to what extent the sixth matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the fifth matchday.
The next
figure shows how many points are needed to survive the league stage, for each
of the teams that are still in the running. The colors in the plot below show,
for each number of points the team can still obtain, its corresponding
probability of progressing.
Comments
• 15 teams
have a guaranteed place in the Top 24, while further four clubs — those with 10
points except for Elfsborg — face elimination with less than 3% chance
• The
strongest club, Lazio, will play in the Round of 16. No other team is
certain of top 8, one matchday before the end.
• Seven
teams are already eliminated, while two clubs (Hoffenheim and M.
Tel-Aviv) have less than 3% chance to avoid this fate.
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the seventh matchday, the biggest winners are Olympiacos,
FCSB, and PAOK, while the biggest losers are Porto, Slavia
Praha, and Slavia Praha in terms of the probability of qualification
for the Round of 16. Slavia Praha – a Pot 1 team - was among the biggest
losers in three consecutive matchdays, and is now eliminated.
• Elfsborg,
PAOK, Midtjylland, and Twente have managed to reduce the
threat of elimination in the league phase by more than 30 percentage points. On
the other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 30 percentage
points for Slavia Praha, Porto, and Hoffenheim
• The
current league phase table is misleading: Twente with 7 points has a
much higher probability (62%) to finish in the Top 24 than Besiktas with
9 points (35%) as they play against each other in the Netherlands
• The
Romanian champion, FCSB has reached the Top 24 despite that its chance of
elimination was 76% before the first matchday.
• In stark
contrast to the UEFA Champions League, three of the weakest eight teams, Elfsborg,
FCSB and Ferencvaros, have a reasonable
chance (exceeding 70%) to survive the league phase
• The
already mentioned Elfsborg, the fifth weakest team, can reach the Top 24
with a probability of 85% even though it had the strongest opponents as
calculated before the first matchday
• The
upcoming match between Real Sociedad and PAOK presents a peculiar dynamic. Both
teams are guaranteed progression to the next stage if the game ends in a draw.
A victory offers no additional advantage for either side. With such
circumstances, questions about the possibility of a prearranged surface. On the
other hand, even with a loss, it is extremely unlikely that any of these teams
would be eliminated.
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 6
How did the
results of the sixth matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the sixth matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 5.
The next
figure shows to what extent the sixth matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the fifth matchday.
The next
figure shows how many points are needed for team to survive the league stage
(left) or reach top 8 (right). The percentages correspond with how often in our
simulations the corresponding number of points was enough.
When we look at the number of points needed to survive the league stage, this in fact differs per team (mostly due to the current and expected goal difference). The colors in the plot below show, for each number of points the team can still obtain, its corresponding probability of progressing. All teams ranked 1 (Lazio) to 7 (Man Utd) are missing here, as they are mathematically certain to survive the league stage. Dynamo Kyiv is already eliminated.
Comments
• Seven
teams (Lazio, Athletic Club, Anderlecht, Lyon, Frankfurt,
Galatasaray, and Man Utd) have a guaranteed place in the Top 24,
while the elimination of further three clubs—those with at least 11 points—is
extremely unlikely.
• One team
(Dynamo Kyiv) is already eliminated, while one club (RFS) has
less than 1% chance to avoid this fate, which makes the Europa League more
interesting than the Champions League where there are nine such teams before
the last two rounds.
• Two of
the strongest teams, Lazio and Athletic Club, will almost surely
reach the Top 8 and the Round of 16.
• The
second strongest team, Tottenham, still has more than 65% probability to
finish in the Top 8 even though it has scored only two points in the last three
rounds.
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the sixth matchday, the biggest winners are Union
SG, Anderlecht, and Roma, while the biggest losers are Slavia
Praha, Fenerbahce, and Ferencvaros
in terms of the probability of qualification for the Round of 16 (Slavia
Praha was among the biggest losers in the previous round, too).
• Union
SG, PAOK, and Elfsborg have managed to reduce the threat of
elimination in the league phase by more than 20 percentage points.
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 15 percentage
points for Slavia Praha, Hoffenheim, Braga, and Nice.
• The
chances of two equally strong clubs, Hoffenheim and Twente, are
almost equal even though Hoffenheim has six rather than four points
since Twente has an easier schedule.
• The
Romanian champion, FCSB will almost certainly finish in the Top 24
despite that its chance of elimination was 76% before the first matchday.
• From Pot
1, Slavia Praha can qualify for the Round of 16 only in less than one
out of four cases because it has only four points.
• In stark contrast
to the UEFA Champions League, two of the weakest eight teams, FCSB and Ferencvaros, have a reasonable chance survive the
league phase.
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 5
How did the
results of the fifth matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the fifth matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 4.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the fifth matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the fourth matchday.
The next
figure shows how many points are needed for team to survive the league stage
(left) or reach top 8 (right). The percentages correspond with how often in our
simulations the corresponding number of points was enough.
When we
look at the number of points needed to survive the league stage, this in fact
differs per team (mostly due to the current and expected goal difference). The
colors in the plot below show, for each number of points the team can still
obtain, its corresponding probability of progressing.
Comments
• Lazio has
the highest chance to reach the Top 8, Top 24, as well as the Round of 16 since
it is the second strongest team and leads the league table.
•
Surprisingly, no team is absolutely certain to survive the league stage after 5
rounds.
• The
second strongest team, Tottenham, still has more than 75% probability to
finish in the Top 8 even though it has scored only one point in the last two
rounds.
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the fifth matchday, the biggest winners are Rangers,
Fenerbahce, and Union SG (all of them have won away), while the
biggest losers are Nice, Slavia Praha, and Hoffenheim in
terms of the probability of qualification for the Round of 16.
• Union
SG, Fenerbahce, Braga, Ferencvaros,
and Rangers have managed to reduce the threat of elimination in the
league phase by more than 20 percentage points.
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 20 percentage
points for Nice, Besiktas, Twente, and Hoffenheim.
• The chance
of elimination is higher for Viktoria Plzen than for the weaker Ferencvaros due to its more difficult schedule in
the three remaining matches, even though both teams have nine points and Plzen
will play two home matches instead of one.
• Two
Eastern European champions, FCSB (Romania) and Ferencvaros
(Hungary) have three wins in the first first five
rounds, thus, the probability of their elimination has decreased from more than
76% (before the first matchday) to 1.25% and 2.84%, respectively.
• From Pot
1, Slavia Praha can qualify for the Round of 16 only in less than five
out of ten cases because it has only four points.
• From Pot
4, Athletic Club has more than 94% chance to finish in the Top 8 - as
its high Elo rating shows, this is rather a well-known problem of UEFA club
coefficients (Csato, 2024a) than the unexpected
performance of a weak team.
• In stark
contrast to the UEFA Champions League, two of the weakest eight teams, FCSB
and Ferencvaros, have very high chances to
survive the league phase.
• Also in constrast to the UEFA Champions League, obtaining 9 points
is likely to be sufficient to survive (75% chance), while collecting 10 points
offers almost certainty.
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 4
How did the
results of the fourth matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the fourth matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 3.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the fourth matchday increased or decreased
the chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the third matchday.
Comments
• Lazio has
the highest chance to reach the Top 8, Top 24, as well as the Round of 16 since
it is now the strongest team and the only one with four wins
• The
second strongest team, Tottenham, still has more than 80% probability to
finish in the Top 8 despite its unexpected loss against Galatasaray
• Compared
to the previous forecast before the fourth matchday, the biggest winners are Viktoria
Plzen, FCSB, and AZ Alkmaar, while the biggest losers are Bodo/Glimt, Midtjylland, and Real Sociedad in
terms of the probability of qualification for the Round of 16
• Ferencvaros has managed to reduce the threat of
elimination in the league phase by more than 35 percentage points
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 15 percentage
points for Dinamo Kyiv and Malmö
• The
chance of elimination is substantially higher for Roma than for the
weaker Slavia Praha due to its more difficult schedule in the four
remaining matches, even though Roma has more points (five) than Slavia
Praha (four)
• Two
Eastern European champions, FCSB (Romania) and Ferencvaros
(Hungary) have shown a remarkable performance in the first half of the
league phase, the probability of their elimination has decreased from more than
76% (before the first matchday) to 7.38% and 24.51%, respectively
• From Pot
1, Rangers can qualify for the Round of 16 only in less than four out of
ten cases despite having seven points
• In stark
contrast to the UEFA Champions League, one of the weakest teams, FCSB has
more than 90% chance to survive the league phase
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 3
How did the
results of the third matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the third matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 2.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the third matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the second matchday.
Comments
• Lazio
and Tottenham still have the highest chance to qualify for the Round of
16, since they are the strongest teams and won three matches
• Compared
to the forecast before the first matchday, the biggest winners are Bodo/Glimt, Ajax, and Real Sociedad (all of
them won away on the third matchday), while the biggest losers are Nice,
Braga, and Malmö in terms of the probability of qualification for
the Round of 16
• Besiktas,
Ferencvaros, and Rangers have managed to
reduce the threat of elimination in the league phase by more than 20 percentage
points
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 20 percentage
points for Braga and Malmö
• The
chance of Roma to finish in the Top 8 is less than the half of the
chance of the equally strong Manchester United due to its more difficult
schedule in the five remaining matches, even though Roma has more points
(four) than Manchester United (three)
• Anderlecht
has shown a remarkable performance by its three wins, the probability of its
elimination has decreased from 18.73% (before the first matchday) to 0.4%
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 2
How did the
results of the second matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the second matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to after
matchday 1.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the second matchday increased or decreased
the chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the first matchday.
Comments
• Tottenham
has still the highest chance to qualify for the Round of 16, followed by Lazio.
They are the only teams among the seven strongest teams that won their first
two matches.
• Anderlecht
(from 16.83% to 2.6%) and Midtjylland (from 38.52% to 15.26%) have
managed to drastically reduce the threat of elimination in the league phase.
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 20 percentage
points for M. Tel Aviv, PAOK, Qarabag
and Rangers.
• Porto
and Roma, the third and fourth strongest teams, have less than 25% chance
to finish in the Top 8 since they have scored only one point in two matches.
• The
Romanian champion FCSB has shown a remarkable performance by its two
wins, the probability of its elimination has decreased from 76.12% (before the
first matchday) to 28.25%.
• In stark
contrast to the UEFA Champions League, two of the eight weakest teams, FCSB
and Malmö, are more likely to survive the league phase than not.
• Compared
to the forecast before the first matchday, the biggest winners are Anderlecht,
Midtjylland, and Lyon (all of them won away on the second
matchday), while the biggest losers are PAOK, Qarabag,
and Real Sociedad in terms of the probability of qualification for the
Round of 16.
• From Pot
1, Rangers can qualify for the Round of 16 only in one out of four
cases, even though it won its first match.
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After matchday 1
How did the
results of the first matchday influence the chances of qualification for each
team? The figure below shows to what extent the first matchday increased or
decreased the chances of each team for qualifying to top 8, compared to right
after the draw.
The next
figure below shows to what extent the first matchday increased or decreased the
chances of each team for surviving the league phase (i.e. reaching top 24),
compared to right after the draw.
Comments
• Now Tottenham
has the highest chance to qualify for the Round of 16, followed by Lazio
since - among the six strongest teams after the draw – only these teams
managed to win their first match.
• Galatasaray
(from 6.89% to 1.94%) and Rangers (from 50.75% to 23.14%) have
managed to drastically reduce the threat of elimination in the league phase.
• On the
other hand, the chance of elimination has increased by more than 15 percentage
points for Dynamo Kyiv, Malmö and Union SG.
• One of
the strongest teams, Porto has lost much due to its away loss against Bodo/Glimt, the probability of its elimination has increased
from 7.53% to 13.17%, while the chance of finishing in the Top 8 has declined
from 47.01% to 30.06%
• None of
the weakest 10 teams have achieved surprise victories, hence, three teams now
have less than 15% chance to survive the league phase
• Looking
ahead to reaching the Round of 16 (i.e. reaching Top 8 or surviving the knockout
round play-off between the teams ranked 9 to 24), the biggest winners of the
first matchday are Rangers, Bodo/Glimt,
and Slavia Praha, while the biggest losers are Olympiacos, Union
SG, and Malmö.
• From Pot
1, Ajax and Rangers are still less likely to qualify for the
Round of 16 than being eliminated in the league phase or the play-offs, even
though they won their first matches
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.
After the draw
What’s the
chance that your team qualifies for the next round? This depends on how lucky
or unlucky your team is in the draw. The figure below shows to what extent the
draw increased or decreased the chances of each team for qualifying for the
Round of 16.
Comments
- The case of two Turkish teams, Fenerbahçe
and Galatasaray is really interesting: the probability of qualification
for the Round of 16 is smaller by more than 20 percentage point for the
former team although it is marginally stronger; the effect of the schedule
is the highest for these two teams in terms of probabilities
- A similar pattern occurs for two Belgian
teams, Union SG and Anderlecht, where the somewhat weaker latter club is
favoured at the expense of the former
- For the Swedish club Elfsborg, the
probability of qualification for the Round of 16 is almost halved (reduced
by more than 46%) by the unfavourable schedule
More
information on the
methodology behind these results can be found here.